Tinubu’s Revenue Numbers Don’t Add Up — Nigerians Are Paying the Price

 

When the African Democratic Congress (ADC) accused President Bola Tinubu’s government of cooking up revenue figures, it struck a nerve. For many Nigerians, the figures being flaunted in Abuja bear little resemblance to the reality of everyday life in the streets of Lagos, Kano, Port Harcourt, or Maiduguri.

The government claims it has mobilized N20.59 trillion in revenue so far in 2025 and parades this as evidence of “record-breaking” financial performance. But the ADC, in a statement signed by its National Publicity Secretary, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi, insists these claims are based on “propaganda statistics” that collapse under scrutiny.

The Missing N21 Trillion

The crux of the ADC’s argument is simple: the 2025 budget projected N41.81 trillion in total revenue. If the government has only managed N20.59 trillion so far, that leaves a yawning shortfall of N21.22 trillion. By any serious accounting, this is not cause for celebration.

Even if one assumes an average monthly target of N3.48 trillion, the first eight months of the year should have yielded N27.87 trillion. Instead, Nigerians are told the Federal Government is on course, when in fact it is running behind schedule.

The ADC goes further, noting that not all the revenue belongs to the Federal Government. Of the statutory revenue pool, the centre receives only 52.68%, while its share of VAT is a meagre 15%. In essence, Abuja’s share of the cake is far smaller than what the propaganda suggests.

When Propaganda Meets Hardship

This gap between glossy claims and lived experience is what truly angers Nigerians. While officials in Abuja celebrate “record revenue,” ordinary citizens are battling unprecedented hardship. Prices of food staples have tripled in many markets. Transportation costs, driven by rising fuel prices, have become unbearable. Families are cutting back on basic meals, parents are withdrawing children from private schools, and healthcare has become a luxury for many.

Against this backdrop, the government’s new policies have landed like a hammer blow. The ADC described the 5% tax on petrol and the 300% hike in passport fees as “cruel and insensitive,” and it is hard to disagree.

A 5% petrol tax may sound modest on paper, but in practice, it translates into higher transport costs, more expensive food, and cascading inflation across every sector of the economy. For millions who already spend more than half of their income on transportation and food, this is devastating.

The passport fee increase, meanwhile, punishes Nigerians who seek better opportunities abroad — a particularly harsh move in a country where youth unemployment remains stubbornly high. For many families, the cost of sending a child abroad for education or employment has just become almost impossible.

Borrowing in the Midst of “Success”

Perhaps the most glaring contradiction lies in the government’s appetite for borrowing. If, as Tinubu’s team claims, revenues are pouring in at record levels, why is Nigeria still borrowing heavily to finance its obligations? Why are debt service costs still consuming a huge chunk of the budget?

This is the question at the heart of the ADC’s critique. It suggests that the government’s figures are not just misleading but also strategically designed to mask the fiscal crisis Nigeria faces. The country’s debt burden is swelling, yet officials would have citizens believe everything is under control.

The Politics of Numbers

Revenue figures are not just numbers on a page; they are political weapons. For the ruling APC, presenting the illusion of financial success is essential to sustaining credibility. For the opposition, exposing the hollowness of those claims is equally vital.

But beyond the political theatre lies the reality of Nigerian households. Statistics may win arguments in press conferences, but they do not put food on the table. They do not reduce the cost of rice, cooking oil, or transport fares. They do not bring down rent or ease the pressure of school fees.

A Government of Insensitivity?

The ADC’s strongest charge is that Tinubu’s government has become insensitive to the suffering of ordinary people. By rolling out tax hikes and fee increases at a time of widespread poverty, the administration is accused of squeezing citizens dry rather than offering relief.

“Rather than providing relief, this government is squeezing citizens dry while borrowing heavily despite its so-called revenue success,” the ADC declared. That statement will resonate with many Nigerians who feel abandoned by the government’s policies.

Where Do We Go From Here?

Nigeria’s economy is at a crossroads. On one hand, there is genuine potential in sectors like technology, agriculture, and renewable energy. On the other, there is a credibility crisis in government, where statistics are massaged and citizens are expected to swallow them without question.

For Nigeria to move forward, transparency and accountability must replace propaganda and self-congratulation. Citizens deserve the truth about the state of the economy — not half-truths dressed up as achievements. More importantly, policies must be designed with people at the centre, not as collateral damage.

Until then, no amount of glossy revenue figures can hide the growing frustration in the streets. The government may boast of trillions, but as long as Nigerians cannot afford bread, fuel, and school fees, those trillions will mean nothing.